Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks - March 21

The Ottawa Senators (35-24-9) host the Toronto Maple Leafs (29-28-13) at Canadian Tire Centre on Saturday, March 21 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Senators have won three straight at home.

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Prepare for this matchup by checking out our prediction for who will emerge with the victory in Saturday's hockey action.

The Maple Leafs have recorded a 2-4-4 record over their last 10 games. They have scored 26 goals while giving up 31 in that time. On the power play, 27 opportunities have resulted in five goals (18.5% success rate).

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Predictions for Saturday

Our computer model for this matchup calls for a final score of Senators 4, Maple Leafs 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Senators (-293)
• Total Pick: Over 6 (computer predicts 6.5 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Maple Leafs (+1.5)

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Senators Splits and Trends

• The Senators are 35-24-9 overall and 6-9-15 in overtime matchups.
• Ottawa is 11-10-9 (31 points) in its 30 games decided by one goal.
• In the nine games this season the Senators scored just one goal, they finished 0-8-1.
• Ottawa has taken 14 points from the 15 games this season when it scored two goals (5-6-4 record).
• The Senators have scored more than two goals in 43 games (30-9-4, 64 points).
• In the 22 games when Ottawa has scored a single power-play goal, it went 12-6-4 to record 28 points.
• In the 46 games when it outshot its opponent, Ottawa is 28-15-3 (59 points).
• The Senators have been outshot by opponents in 19 games, going 6-7-6 to record 18 points.

Maple Leafs Splits and Trends

• The Maple Leafs have a 29-28-13 record this season and are 8-13-21 in matchups that have gone to overtime.
• In the 23 games Toronto has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 31 points.
• This season the Maple Leafs scored just one goal in eight games and they've earned two points (0-6-2) in those contests.
• Toronto has earned 15 points (5-10-5 record) this season when scoring exactly two goals .
• The Maple Leafs have scored three or more goals in 41 games, earning 54 points from those contests.
• This season, Toronto has recorded a single power-play goal in 21 games and registered 18 points with a record of 6-9-6.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Toronto is 6-8-2 (14 points).
• The Maple Leafs have been outshot by opponents 52 times this season, and earned 53 points in those games.

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Team Stats Comparison

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario

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