Panthers vs. Lightning Prediction & Picks - NHL Playoffs First Round Game 4

Monday's playoff slate features the Florida Panthers hosting the Tampa Bay Lightning for Game 4 of the NHL Playoffs First Round, starting at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Panthers are ahead in the series 2-1. The Panthers are the favorite, with -136 moneyline odds, in this game against the Lightning, who have +115 moneyline odds.

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Before watching this matchup, here is a look at which squad we pick to come out on top in Monday's NHL Playoffs First Round action.

Panthers vs. Lightning Predictions for Monday

Our computer model for this contest expects a final score of Panthers 4, Lightning 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Panthers (-136)
• Total Pick: Over 5.5 (computer predicts 6 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Lightning (+1.5)

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Panthers Splits and Trends

• The Panthers are 47-31-4 overall and 10-4-14 in overtime games.
• Florida is 11-6-4 (26 points) in its 21 games decided by one goal.
• The 17 times this season the Panthers finished a game with just one goal, they went 3-14-0 (six points).
• Florida has taken 14 points from the 15 games this season when it scored a pair of goals (6-7-2 record).
• The Panthers have scored at least three goals 48 times, and are 40-6-2 in those games (to register 82 points).
• In the 37 games when Florida has scored a single power-play goal, it registered 52 points after finishing 24-9-4.
• In games when it has outshot opponents, Florida is 32-21-3 (67 points).
• The Panthers have been outshot by opponents in 21 games, going 11-9-1 to register 23 points.

Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning have a 47-27-8 record this season and are 6-8-14 in games that have required overtime.
• In the 22 games Tampa Bay has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 21 points.
• This season the Lightning scored only one goal in nine games and they finished 0-8-1 in those matchups.
• Tampa Bay has earned seven points (2-10-3 record) this season when scoring exactly two goals .
• The Lightning have scored three or more goals in 57 games, earning 96 points from those contests.
• This season, Tampa Bay has capitalized on a single power-play goal in 32 games has a record of 22-9-1 in those matchups.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Tampa Bay is 25-18-0 (50 points).
• The Lightning have been outshot by opponents 38 times this season, and earned 52 points in those games.

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Team Stats Comparison

Panthers vs. Lightning Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Monday, April 28, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN
• Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Florida

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