Stars vs. Oilers Prediction & Picks - Stanley Cup Semifinals Game 5

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Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Semifinals on Thursday will see the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers square off, starting at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Oilers lead the series 3-1. Oddsmakers give the Stars -129 odds on the moneyline in this matchup against the Oilers (+109).

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Ahead of watching this matchup, here is a glimpse at which team we think will bring home the victory in Thursday's Stanley Cup Semifinals action.

Stars vs. Oilers Predictions for Thursday

Our computer projections model for this matchup calls for a final score of Stars 4, Oilers 3.

  • Moneyline Pick: Stars (-129)
  • Total Pick: No Pick - Predicted Margin Negligible
  • Spread Pick: Oilers (+1.5)

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Stars Splits and Trends

  • The Stars have a 50-26-6 record overall, with a 12-6-18 record in games that have required overtime.
  • Dallas has 42 points (19-7-4) in the 30 games it has played that were decided by one goal.
  • In the 12 games this season the Stars scored just one goal, they've finished 1-11-0 (two points).
  • Dallas has finished 8-8-3 in the 19 games this season when it scored two goals (registering 19 points).
  • The Stars have scored at least three goals 63 times, and are 50-10-3 in those games (to record 103 points).
  • In the 36 games when Dallas has capitalized on a lone power-play goal, it went 26-9-1 to register 53 points.
  • In the 39 games when it outshot its opponent, Dallas is 24-14-1 (49 points).
  • The Stars have been outshot by opponents 55 times, and went 33-17-5 (71 points).

Oilers Splits and Trends

  • The Oilers have a 15-5-20 record in overtime games this season and a 48-29-5 overall record.
  • In the 43 games Edmonton has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 56 points.
  • This season the Oilers recorded only one goal in seven games and have gone 2-5-0 (four points).
  • Edmonton has earned six points (2-9-2 record) this season when scoring two goals .
  • The Oilers have earned 113 points in their 71 games with at least three goals scored.
  • This season, Edmonton has recorded a single power-play goal in 36 games and registered 48 points with a record of 22-10-4.
  • When outshooting its opponent this season, Edmonton is 45-17-4 (94 points).
  • The Oilers have been outshot by opponents in 25 games, going 9-15-1 to record 19 points.

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Team Stats Comparison

Stars Rank Stars AVG Oilers AVG Oilers Rank
3rd 3.35 Goals Scored 3.16 11th
6th 2.71 Goals Allowed 2.87 14th
13th 28.4 Shots 32 1st
23rd 29 Shots Allowed 26.9 8th
17th 22% Power Play % 23.72% 12th
4th 82.02% Penalty Kill % 78.16% 16th

Stars vs. Oilers Game Time and TV Channel

  • When: Thursday, May 29, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
  • Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas

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