On Thursday the Toronto Maple Leafs go on the road to square off against the Ottawa Senators for Game 6 of the NHL Playoffs First Round, beginning at 7 p.m. ET on TBS. The Maple Leafs hold a 3-2 lead in the series. The Senators have -116 moneyline odds against the Maple Leafs (-104).
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Prepare for this NHL Playoffs First Round matchup with a glimpse at who we project to win the game.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Predictions for Thursday
Our computer model for this game calls for a final result of Senators 4, Maple Leafs 3.
- Moneyline Pick: Senators (-116)
- Total Pick: Over 5.5 (computer predicts 5.9 goals on average)
- Spread Pick: Maple Leafs (+1.5)
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Senators Splits and Trends
- The Senators have a 45-30-7 record overall, with an 11-9-20 record in games that have required overtime.
- Ottawa has 51 points (22-6-7) in the 35 games it has played that were decided by one goal.
- In the nine games this season the Senators scored only one goal, they lost every time.
- Ottawa has taken 15 points from the 21 games this season when it scored exactly two goals (6-12-3 record).
- The Senators are 41-5-4 in the 50 games when they have scored at least three goals (to register 86 points).
- In the 30 games when Ottawa has scored a lone power-play goal, it has a 16-10-4 record (36 points).
- In games when it has outshot its opponent, Ottawa is 21-14-3 (45 points).
- The Senators have been outshot by opponents 43 times, and went 24-15-4 (52 points).
Maple Leafs Splits and Trends
- The Maple Leafs have a 13-5-18 record in overtime contests this season and a 52-26-4 overall record.
- Toronto has earned 49 points (23-4-3) in its 30 games decided by one goal.
- This season the Maple Leafs scored only one goal in 12 games and have gone 1-10-1 (three points).
- When Toronto has scored exactly two goals this season, they've earned seven points (3-10-1 record).
- The Maple Leafs have scored three or more goals 57 times, earning 105 points from those matchups (51-3-3).
- This season, Toronto has scored a single power-play goal in 32 games has a record of 23-8-1 in those matchups.
- When it outshoots its opponent this season, Toronto has posted a record of 18-13-2 (38 points).
- The Maple Leafs' opponents have had more shots in 49 games. The Maple Leafs finished 35-12-2 in those contests (72 points).
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Team Stats Comparison
| Senators Rank | Senators AVG | Maple Leafs AVG | Maple Leafs Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | 2.95 | Goals Scored | 3.26 | 7th |
| 13th | 2.83 | Goals Allowed | 2.79 | 8th |
| 8th | 29.3 | Shots | 28 | 18th |
| 18th | 28.6 | Shots Allowed | 29.3 | 25th |
| 13th | 23.7% | Power Play % | 24.77% | 9th |
| 19th | 77.73% | Penalty Kill % | 77.87% | 17th |
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game Time and TV Channel
- When: Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: TBS
- Live Stream: Watch this match on Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
- Where: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario
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