Game 5 of the NHL Playoffs First Round features the Toronto Maple Leafs hosting the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday, April 29 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Maple Leafs have a 3-1 lead in the series. The Senators are underdogs (+148) against the Maple Leafs (-177).
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Before this matchup, here's who we project to secure the win in Tuesday's NHL Playoffs First Round action.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Predictions for Tuesday
Our computer projections model for this contest predicts a final score of Maple Leafs 4, Senators 2.
- Moneyline Pick: Maple Leafs (-177)
- Total Pick: Over 5.5 (computer predicts 6 goals on average)
- Spread Pick: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
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Maple Leafs Splits and Trends
- The Maple Leafs (52-26-4 overall) have a 13-5-18 record in matchups that have needed overtime.
- Toronto is 23-4-3 (49 points) in its 30 games decided by one goal.
- The 12 times this season the Maple Leafs ended a game with just one goal, they went 1-10-1 (three points).
- Toronto has finished 3-10-1 in the 14 games this season when it scored a pair of goals (registering seven points).
- The Maple Leafs have scored more than two goals in 57 games (51-3-3, 105 points).
- In the 32 games when Toronto has capitalized on a lone power-play goal, it has a 23-8-1 record (47 points).
- In the 32 games this season in which it has outshot its opponent, Toronto is 18-12-2 (38 points).
- The Maple Leafs' opponents have had more shots in 49 games. The Maple Leafs went 35-12-2 in those contests (72 points).
Senators Splits and Trends
- The Senators have a 45-30-7 record this season and are 11-9-20 in games that have needed overtime.
- Ottawa has earned 51 points (22-6-7) in its 35 games decided by one goal.
- This season the Senators recorded just one goal in nine games and they lost every time.
- Ottawa has earned 15 points (6-12-3 record) this season when scoring a pair of goals .
- The Senators have earned 84 points in their 49 games with at least three goals scored.
- This season, Ottawa has recorded a lone power-play goal in 30 games has a record of 16-10-4 in those matchups.
- When outshooting its opponent this season, Ottawa is 21-14-3 (45 points).
- The Senators have been outshot by opponents in 42 games, going 23-15-4 to record 50 points.
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Team Stats Comparison
| Maple Leafs Rank | Maple Leafs AVG | Senators AVG | Senators Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7th | 3.26 | Goals Scored | 2.95 | 18th |
| 8th | 2.79 | Goals Allowed | 2.83 | 13th |
| 18th | 28 | Shots | 29.3 | 8th |
| 25th | 29.3 | Shots Allowed | 28.6 | 18th |
| 9th | 24.77% | Power Play % | 23.7% | 13th |
| 17th | 77.87% | Penalty Kill % | 77.73% | 19th |
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Game Time and TV Channel
- When: Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
- Where: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario
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