Maple Leafs vs. Senators Prediction & Picks - NHL Playoffs First Round Game

Game 5 of the NHL Playoffs First Round on Tuesday, April 29 will see the Toronto Maple Leafs hosting the Ottawa Senators at Scotiabank Arena at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Maple Leafs are up 3-1 in the series. The Senators have +141 odds on the moneyline against the favored Maple Leafs (-168).

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Get ready for this NHL Playoffs First Round matchup with a glimpse at who we project to emerge with the victory.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators Predictions for Tuesday

Our computer projection model for this contest predicts a final tally of Maple Leafs 4, Senators 2.

• Moneyline Pick: Maple Leafs (-168)
• Total Pick: Over 5.5 (computer predicts 6.0 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Maple Leafs (-1.5)

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Maple Leafs Splits and Trends

• The Maple Leafs have a 52-26-4 record overall, with a 13-5-18 record in matchups that have gone to overtime.
• Toronto is 23-4-3 (49 points) in its 30 games decided by one goal.
• In the 12 games this season the Maple Leafs registered just one goal, they went 1-10-1 (three points).
• Toronto has taken seven points from the 14 games this season when it scored a pair of goals (3-10-1 record).
• The Maple Leafs have scored three or more goals 57 times, and are 51-3-3 in those games (to register 105 points).
• In the 32 games when Toronto has capitalized on a lone power-play goal, it registered 47 points after finishing 23-8-1.
• When it has outshot its opponent, Toronto is 18-12-2 (38 points).
• The Maple Leafs have been outshot by opponents in 49 games, going 35-12-2 to record 72 points.

Senators Splits and Trends

• The Senators have posted a record of 11-9-20 in overtime matchups as part of an overall mark of 45-30-7.
• Ottawa has earned 51 points (22-6-7) in its 35 games decided by one goal.
• This season the Senators scored only one goal in nine games and they lost every time.
• When Ottawa has scored exactly two goals this season, they've earned 15 points (6-12-3 record).
• The Senators have scored at least three goals in 49 games, earning 84 points from those contests.
• This season, Ottawa has capitalized on a single power-play goal in 30 games and registered 36 points with a record of 16-10-4.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Ottawa is 21-14-3 (45 points).
• The Senators' opponents have had more shots in 42 games. The Senators went 23-15-4 in those matchups (50 points).

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Team Stats Comparison

Maple Leafs vs. Senators Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Tuesday, April 29, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN
• Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario

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