Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks - NHL Playoffs First Round Game

The Ottawa Senators host the Toronto Maple Leafs Saturday at Canadian Tire Centre for Game 4 of the NHL Playoffs First Round, beginning at 7 p.m. ET on TBS. The Maple Leafs have a 3-0 lead in the series. The Maple Leafs are underdogs (+104) against the Senators (-124).

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Ahead of watching this matchup, here's a glimpse at which squad we pick to emerge with the victory in Saturday's NHL Playoffs First Round action.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Predictions for Saturday

Our computer projection model for this encounter expects a final result of Senators 4, Maple Leafs 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Senators (-124)
• Total Pick: Over 5.5 (computer predicts 6.0 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Maple Leafs (+1.5)

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Senators Splits and Trends

• The Senators (45-30-7 overall) have a 10-9-19 record in matchups that have required overtime.
• In the 34 games Ottawa has played that were decided by one goal, it has a 21-6-7 record (good for 49 points).
• In the nine games this season the Senators registered just one goal, they lost every time.
• Ottawa has finished 6-12-3 in the 21 games this season when it scored two goals (registering 15 points).
• The Senators are 39-5-4 in the 48 games when they have scored at least three goals (to record 82 points).
• In the 29 games when Ottawa has recorded a lone power-play goal, it registered 34 points after finishing 15-10-4.
• In games when it has outshot opponents, Ottawa is 21-14-3 (45 points).
• The Senators have been outshot by opponents 41 times, and went 22-15-4 (48 points).

Maple Leafs Splits and Trends

• The Maple Leafs have posted a record of 13-4-17 in overtime matchups on their way to an overall mark of 52-26-4.
• In the 29 games Toronto has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 48 points.
• This season the Maple Leafs scored only one goal in 12 games and have gone 1-10-1 (three points).
• Toronto has earned seven points (3-10-1 record) this season when scoring exactly two goals .
• The Maple Leafs have earned 104 points in their 56 games with at least three goals scored.
• Toronto has scored a lone power-play goal in 32 games this season and has recorded 47 points from those matchups.
• When it outshoots its opponent this season, Toronto has posted a record of 18-12-1 (37 points).
• The Maple Leafs' opponents have had more shots in 49 games. The Maple Leafs finished 35-12-2 in those matchups (72 points).

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Team Stats Comparison

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, April 26, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: TBS
• Live Stream: Watch this match on Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario

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