Lightning vs. Flames Prediction & Picks - February 27

The Tampa Bay Lightning (33-20-4, on a six-game winning streak) host the Calgary Flames (28-21-8) at Amalie Arena. The matchup on Thursday, February 27 begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Here is our prediction for who will claim the win in Thursday's matchup.

The Flames have a 4-5-1 record in their past 10 contests. They have totaled 24 goals while conceding 28 in that time. On the power play, 36 opportunities have resulted in nine goals (25.0% success rate).

Lightning vs. Flames Predictions for Thursday

Our computer model for this contest expects a final score of Lightning 4, Flames 2.

Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-219)
Total Pick: No Pick - Predicted Margin Negligible
Spread Pick: Lightning (-1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

The Lightning are 5-4-9 in overtime matchups on their way to a 33-20-4 overall record.
In the 17 games Tampa Bay has played that were decided by one goal, it has a 7-7-3 record (good for 17 points).
In the six games this season the Lightning scored just one goal, they finished 0-5-1.
Tampa Bay finished 0-8-2 in the 10 games this season when it scored two goals (registering two points).
The Lightning have scored at least three goals in 40 games (33-6-1, 67 points).
In the 19 games when Tampa Bay has scored a lone power-play goal, it went 13-6-0 to record 26 points.
In games when it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 18-12-0 (36 points).
The Lightning have been outshot by opponents in 24 games, going 14-6-4 to register 32 points.

Flames Splits and Trends

The Flames have a 28-21-8 record this season and are 6-8-14 in matchups that have gone to overtime.
Calgary has earned 25 points (9-2-7) in its 18 games decided by one goal.
Across the 10 games this season the Flames ended with just one goal, they have earned four points.
When Calgary has scored exactly two goals this season, they've earned seven points (2-7-3 record).
The Flames have scored at least three goals in 33 games, earning 53 points from those contests.
This season, Calgary has capitalized on a lone power-play goal in 24 games has a record of 11-8-5 in those matchups.
When it outshoots its opponent this season, Calgary has posted a record of 18-6-4 (40 points).
The Flames' opponents have had more shots in 26 games. The Flames went 10-12-4 in those matchups (24 points).

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning Rank	Lightning AVG		Flames AVG	Flames Rank
2nd	3.58	Goals Scored	2.65	28th
6th	2.7	Goals Allowed	2.93	14th
12th	29	Shots	29.2	9th
17th	28.7	Shots Allowed	29.2	23rd
4th	27.04%	Power Play %	21.82%	16th
12th	80.28%	Penalty Kill %	73.05%	28th

Lightning vs. Flames Game Time and TV Channel

When: Thursday, February 27, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN+
Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
Where: Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida